Estimating Beta-Coefficients of German Stock Data: A Non-Parametric Approach

Abstract

Although the consumption based asset pricing theory appears to be theoretically superior and more elegant than the beta pricing model, in practice the beta pricing model is more widely applied. Indeed, beta pricing models are one of the most widely adopted tools in financial analysis. They readily allow handling systematic risk as priced in financial assets. However, accurately estimating beta-coefficients is not as straightforward as implicitly suggested by Sharpe's standard market model, i.e. simply using the ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression. This is primarily because beta-coefficients cannot generally be assumed to be stable over time. In order to overcome this deficiency, we present and apply a non-parametric estimation technique that allows capturing this time effect and promises both more reliable estimates than obtained with an OLS regression as well as better manageability compared with the existing time-series approaches dealing with time-varying beta-coefficients. Estimation results for constant and time-varying betas are presented for portfolios of German industries.     

Business credit information sharing and default risk of private firms

We investigate whether and how business credit information sharing helps to better assess the default risk of private firms. Private firms represent an ideal testing ground because they are smaller, more informationally opaque, riskier, and more dependent on trade credit and bank loans than public firms. Based on a representative panel dataset that comprises private firms from all major industries, we find that business credit information sharing substantially improves the quality of default predictions. The improvement is stronger for older firms and those with limited liability, and depends on the sharing of firms’ payment history and the number of firms covered by the local credit bureau office. The value of soft business credit information is higher the smaller the firms and the lower their distance from the local credit bureau office. Furthermore, in spatial and industry analyses we show that the higher the value of business credit information the lower the realized default rates. Our study highlights the channel through which business credit information sharing adds value and the factors that influence its strength.     

Basic research, openness, and convergence

We study a model where economic growth is fueled by public basic-research investment and the importation of leading technology from foreign countries. In each period, the government chooses the amount of basic research, balancing the costs and benefits of stimulating growth through both channels. We establish the existence of steady states and the long-run share of technologically advanced sectors in the economy. Then we explore how different degrees of openness affect long-term incentives to invest in basic research. Our main insight is that higher openness tends to encourage more investment in basic research, which, in turn, yields a larger share of leading sectors. If, however, there are prospects of importing major technology advances, highly open countries will reduce basic research as such imports become particularly valuable.     

Raising juveniles

This paper investigates how families decide how juveniles use their time. The problem is analyzed in three variations: (i) a ‘decentralized’ scheme, in which parents control the main budget, but their children dispose of their time as they see fit, together with any earnings from work on their own account; (ii) ‘hierarchy’, in which parents can enforce, at some cost, particular levels of schooling and supervised work contributing to the main budget; and (iii) the cooperative solution, in which resources are pooled and the threat point is one of the non-cooperative outcomes. Adults choose which game is played. While the subgame perfect equilibrium of the overall game is pareto-efficient, it may yield less education than ‘hierarchy’. Restrictions on child labor and compulsory schooling generally affect both the threat point and the feasible set of bargaining outcomes. Families may choose more schooling than the legal minimum.     

Innovation Process 'Fuel Cell Vehicle': What Strategy Promises to be Most Successful?

Many car manufacturers recognize fuel cell vehicles as future substitutes for conventional cars with internal combustion engines. According to press releases and brochures, different strategic approaches of the automobile companies to fuel cell technology can be identified. These strategies match to a high degree the market entry strategies known from strategic marketing literature. A system dynamics model that reflects the beginning innovation process and the strategic approaches of a pioneer (first to market), an early follower (early to market) and a late follower (late to market) has been built. It examines the future prospects of the car manufacturers' strategies in three different scenarios, which illuminate possible future developments of external influences like politics or fuel infrastructure.     

Nonlinear and asymmetric returns on customer satisfaction: do they vary across situations and consumers?

Customer satisfaction is generally acknowledged as a key determinant of the value a customer contributes to a firm. Following the widespread recognition that the relationship is nonlinear and possibly even asymmetric, the authors develop a framework for understanding and predicting functional differences across consumers and situations. The resultant conceptualization proposes two general categories of moderating factors: Type I moderators, which induce functional changes by impacting the underlying comparison standards employed in the CS formation process, and Type II moderators, which cause the function to change by altering the interplay of cognitive and affective modes of the satisfaction experience. The authors employ firm reputation as an example of a Type I moderation and customer involvement as an example of a Type II moderation to illustrate differences between these types of moderation and to highlight how exactly each type of moderation changes the functional nature of the focal relationship. Specifically, a firm with a strong reputation benefits from a broader zone of tolerance than a firm of minor reputation, and highly involved customers react more intensively to extreme changes in satisfaction than do low involvement consumers.     

How the baby boomers' retirement wave distorts model‐based output gap estimates

This paper illustrates, based on an example, the importance of consistency between empirical measurement and the concept of variables in estimated macroeconomic models. Since standard New Keynesian models do not account for demographic trends and sectoral shifts, I propose adjusting hours worked per capita used to estimate such models accordingly to enhance the consistency between the data and the model. Without this adjustment, low‐frequency shifts in hours lead to unreasonable trends in the output gap, caused by the close link between hours and the output gap in such models. The retirement wave of baby boomers, for example, lowers US aggregate hours per capita, which leads to erroneous permanently negative output gap estimates following the Great Recession. After correcting hours for changes in the age composition, the estimated output gap closes gradually instead following the years after the Great Recession.     

A Cautionary Note on the Use of Benefit Metrics for Cost-Effective Conservation

Cost-effective land conservation techniques, such as optimization, have the potential to contribute substantially to the provision of many important environmental benefits, such as biodiversity protection, flood control, food security, water quality, and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. There has been a recent push for conservation organizations to adopt project selection optimization approaches such as binary linear programming. The metrics used to measure the benefits of a project however, are often poorly defined in that they do not directly compute a value. These scores represent normalized measurements of underlying values that are likely log-normally distributed. Applying such metrics in optimization will tend to undervalue high-benefit projects and select a suboptimal portfolio of projects relative to simpler approaches. This suboptimal performance can lead to losses in efficiency as high as 30%. We propose a hybrid optimization heuristic that can improve performance and, additionally, provide conservation professionals with more flexibility and freedom to select conservation projects at their discretion—potentially overcoming a substantial real-world adaptation hurdle.     

Building and leveraging sports brands: evidence from 50 years of German professional soccer

Although professional sports are a major interest for consumers and a soaring contributor to economic growth, very little is known about how sports brands are built over time and what makes some sports clubs’ market performance so much stronger than others. Based on a unique dataset of 40 German professional soccer brands tracked from 1963 through 2014, this research studies how the value drivers recruitment, winning, and publicity feed sales-based brand equity (SBBE) and attendance. One of the novel findings is that not only do strong brands benefit from higher levels of SBBE, but they are also able to leverage SBBE more effectively the longer they are on the market, which widens the gap between strong and weak brands across time. We also find that the effect of the value drivers on attendance evolves from direct to indirect via SBBE. Overall, the increasing brand leverage effect yields important implications for marketing theory and for sports brand management.     

Assessing community-wide outcomes of prevention marketing campaigns through telephone surveys

This random sample survey assesses the outcomes of the community-wide HIV prevention marketing campaigns for adolescents through telephone surveys, as well as the decisions that were made to address these concerns. The study employed repeated cross-sectional analysis to collect data from 1402 adolescents over a 23-month period. Likewise, a dual sampling strategy combined with Random Digit Dialing with Listed Household samples were used. The study was conducted in a manner that protects the anonymity, privacy, and confidentiality; and at the same time, gathers an adequate response rate. Results of the study confirm that the success of the evaluation program depended on the adequacy of the response rate, which includes the use of advanced letters and toll-free phone line, as well as sensitivity to the needs and concerns of the target population. The success that was achieved is still inadequate since the results confirm the challenge of developing feasible, affordable, tailored techniques for measuring risk behavior change in members of these groups.